Latest satellite pictures show that convective clouds have increased in the vicinity of the low-pressure area and it is now a tropical disturbance. Low-level wind circulation indicates that the centre is most probably located near latitude 15 degrees south and longitude 65 degrees east, far to the north-northeast of Rodrigues.
There are indications that the system is moving slowly towards the south currently. However, the models show that as from Thursday evening, it will move in a general south-easterly direction and start to move away from the Mascarenes Islands.
Environmental conditions are favourable for further development of the tropical disturbance and most weather models are indicating a gradual intensification of the system into a moderate tropical storm by Friday 16 or in the morning of Saturday 17 February.
In the event that this low reaches the Moderate Tropical Storm intensity, it will be named ‘DJOUNGOU’ while located far to the north of Rodrigues.
Weather outlook for Wednesday 14 to Saturday 17 February, 2024
Mauritius
Mauritius:
Passing showers, mainly to the East, the South and the Central Plateau.
Wind will blow from the east at a speed of about 20 km/h, strengthening to 30 km/h with gusts of 60 km/h on Saturday.
Rodrigues
Rodrigues:
Few passing showers in the morning and evening.
Wind easterly 30-40 km/h with gusts of the order of 70km/h, strengthening by the end of the period.
The sea will be rough with wave height of the order of 3 meters at first, increasing to around 4 metres as from Friday 17 February 2024.
St-Brandon
St Brandon:
Occasional showers.
Wind southeasterly to southerly 20 to 30km/h with gusts of 55 km/h
