The tropical disturbance which was evolving to the northwest of St Brandon has intensified into a tropical depression early this morning and it is expected to continue to develop.
At 10h00 today, it was centered near latitude 14.7 degrees south and longitude 55.0 degrees east, that is at a distance of about 525 km almost to the northwest of St Brandon. It is moving towards the east-north-easterly at a speed of about 15 km/h.
Evolution of the system
Most weather models are intensifying the system while moving initially towards the north east. There is likelihood that the tropical depression will reach moderate tropical storm intensity in the afternoon of Monday 19 and will be named “Eleanor”. The system is expected to recurve towards the South as from Tuesday 20 and eventually towards the South-South-West. On this trajectory, it is expected to dangerously approach St Brandon. However, there are still some uncertainties regarding the intensity and movement of the system.
Weather Outlook Monday 19 to Wednesday 21 February 2024:
Cloudy with showers at times, becoming frequent as from tonight. The showers will become heavy and thundery as from Tuesday.
Wind initially blowing from the East will strengthen with a mean of 50 km/h and gusts of the order of 100km/h.
Cyclonic conditions may prevail as from Tuesday evening with gusts of 150 km/h to 180 km/h. The system is expected to pass less than 50km off St Brandon.
Sea will become gradually high to phenomenal with swells. The wave height is expected to be 8 to 10 metres as from Tuesday night. Storm surges may affect the islets.
Precautions to be taken by the residents, including fisherman at St-Brandon:
2. to remain inside as from tomorrow Tuesday 20.
3. NOT to venture at sea and near the shore as from Tuesday 20.
