he tropical disturbance to the north-east of Madagascar is expected to track towards the South-east and intensify gradually.
Evolution of the system.
The tropical disturbance is evolving in a favorable environment for further intensification. Most Numerical Weather Prediction models are in agreement that the system may intensify into a moderate tropical storm by tomorrow, Tuesday 26 and will be named Gamene. It is expected to track towards the southeast while intensifying further. On this trajectory, it represents a potential threat to Mauritius and there is a high probability to have cyclonic conditions as from Saturday 30.
Expected Weather over Mauritius from Thursday 28 to Sunday 31 March 2024.
Passing showers on Thursday 28, mainly over the Central Plateau and the windward slopes. The showers are likely to become frequent and scattered as from Friday 29; moderate to locally heavy at times in the night.
Weather will deteriorate further on Saturday 30 with heavy to violent thundery showers and cyclonic conditions may prevail.
Wind will initially blow from the eastern sector at a speed of about 30 km/h with gusts of 60 km/h.
The wind will increase gradually as the tropical system will approach Mauritius. Gusts of the order of 90km/h will be felt as from Friday 29 increasing further.
The open sea will be rough becoming very rough with swells. As from Friday, storm surge may cause coastal inundation especially along the northern and western coasts especially during high tides.
