Overland Gamane drastically lost its strength and weakened considerably even though active convective clouds were still associated with its circulation.
Satellite imagery indicates that Gamane has now emerged into the Mozambique Channel as a tropical disturbance. The estimated central pressure is 1010 hPa and the maximum gust around 55 km/h. At 13h00 hours, Gamane was centered very close to the northwestern coast of Madagascar near latitude 14.0 degrees south and longitude 47.1 degrees east. It is moving west-southwest at a speed of about 15 km/h.
Evolution
Numerical weather models are diverging significantly on the future evolution of tropical disturbance Gamane. There are still indications that the system may recurve and move inland Madagascar again as from tonight. Thereafter, it is expected to cross the mainland all the way and emerging into the Indian Ocean as a low pressure area.
There is a low probability that this weak circulation may temporarily gain some strength and move towards the Mascarene Islands, thus bringing significant moisture to the North of the Mascarenes where it is expected to eventually dissipate.
Weather Outlook
The above scenario may result in a rainy weather during the Easter week-end, until Monday morning. The showers may be moderate and thundery at times.
